Texas Political Update November 15, 2021
The next election cycle is in full swing and we’ve been peppered with campaign announcements over the past several weeks. Filing deadline is Monday, December 13, 2021, and this morning we saw a significant announcement at the top of the ticket:
O’Rourke Announces Challenge for Texas Governor
Beto O’Rourke is running for governor, ending months of speculation and anticipation by Democrats. The former El Paso congressman, 2018 U.S. Senate nominee and 2020 presidential contender said he was running for governor to improve public schools, health care and jobs in Texas, and he criticized incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott on multiple fronts, including abortion, elections and permit-less carry of handguns. The gubernatorial race marks O’Rourke’s third campaign in as many election cycles — and it is unfolding in a much different context than his first statewide run three years ago. He is now well-known to Texas voters, and polls show more voters have a negative opinion of him than a positive one. The national environment is also working against him this time, with fellow Democrat President Joe Biden, deeply unpopular in Texas. The latest University of Texas / Texas Tribune poll found O’Rourke trailing Gov. Abbott by 9 percentage points. Perhaps the most defining and controversial political position, O’Rourke — still raw from a deadly mass shooting that took place in his hometown of El Paso — unapologetically defended his support for a mandatory assault weapon buyback program at a 2019 debate in Houston. “Hell yes, we’re going to take your AR-15, your AK-47,” O’Rourke famously said.
Lawmaker Announcements of Retirement, or Running for Higher Office
Four state senators and eighteen state representatives have announced their intentions to either retire, or run for another office:
– Rep. Chris Paddie (R, Marshall, HD 9) retiring
– Rep. Ben Leman (R, Anderson, HD 13) retiring
– Rep. John Cyrier (R, Lockhart, HD 17) retiring
– Rep. James White (R, Hillister, HD 19) running for Agriculture Commissioner
– Rep. Eddie Lucio, III (D, Brownsville, HD 38) retiring
– Rep. Celia Israel (D, Austin, HD 50) retiring, considering run for Austin Mayor
– Rep. Eddie Rodriguez (D, Austin, HD 51) running for U.S. Congress CD 35
– Rep. Phil King (R, Weatherford, HD 61) running for Texas Senate SD 10
– Rep. Tan Parker (R, Flower Mound, HD 63) running for Texas Senate SD 12
– Rep. Michelle Beckley (D, Carrollton, HD 65) retiring, suspended run for U.S. Congress
– Rep. Scott Sanford (R, McKinney, HD 70) retiring
– Rep. Kyle Biedermann (R, Fredericksbug, HD 73) retiring
– Rep. John Frullo (R, Lubbock, HD 84) retiring
– Rep. Matt Krause (R, Ft. Worth, HD 93) running for Texas Attorney General, or Tarrant County DA
– Rep. John Turner (D, Dallas, HD 114) retiring
– Rep. Lyle Larson (R, San Antonio, HD 122) retiring
– Rep. Dan Huberty (R, Houston, HD 127) retiring
– Rep. Jim Murphy (R, Houston, HD 133) retiring
– Sen. Jane Nelson (R, Flower Mound, SD 12) retiring
– Sen. Dawn Buckingham (R, Lakeway, SD 24) running for Texas Land Commissioner
– Sen. Eddie Lucio, Jr. (D, Brownsville, SD 27) retiring
– Sen. Kel Seliger (R, Amarillo, SD 31) retiring
Rep. Ryan Guillen Switches from DEM to GOP
Longtime Democratic state Rep. Ryan Guillen of Rio Grande City is switching parties as Republicans push to make new inroads in South Texas and after redistricting made his district much more favorable to the GOP. Guillen made the announcement this morning during a news conference in Floresville where he was joined by Gov. Greg Abbott and House Speaker Dade Phelan (R-Beaumont). The newly drawn House District 31 has gone from a “swing” district to solid Republican (55.91%). In 2020, Donald Trump got 62.07% in this new district (compared with 56.14% in the current district). Guillen nonetheless won reelection last year by 17 points. His decision to run for reelection under the GOP banner is a boon for Republicans who have been working to show new strength in South Texas after President Joe Biden underperformed there in 2020. The last state lawmaker to change parties was Rep. JM Lozano (R-Kingsville) in 2012. He was also a South Texas Democrat who made the decision to join the GOP after redistricting. Guillen is already well-known as an outlier in his caucus. He is the least liberal Democrat in the House, according to rankings from Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University.
Federal Vaccine Mandate Temporarily BlockedTexas Republicans have claimed an early victory after a U.S. federal appeals court temporarily blocked the Biden administration from mandating that companies with more than 100 employees require workers to get coronavirus vaccines or submit to weekly testing. In a two-page order, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit cited “grave statutory and constitutional issues” with the federal COVID-19 vaccine rule developed by the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA). The vaccine requirement would apply to about 84 million workers across the country and go into effect January 4th. The decision followed a joint petition filed by a handful of states, including Texas, plus several businesses and advocacy groups that argued government overreach. The safety measures could, in some cases, preempt state and local laws, including Gov. Greg Abbott’s executive order ban on vaccine mandates.
Texas Share of Federal Infrastructure Bill: $35 billionThe White House estimates that Texas will receive about $35.44 billion over five years for roads, bridges, pipes, ports, broadband access and other projects after federal lawmakers passed a long-anticipated national infrastructure bill. The influx of capital is set to advance existing transit plans, pay for much-needed repairs and could lay the groundwork toward increasing transportation options for Texans. U.S. House lawmakers gave the roughly $1.2 trillion measure final approval after a series of negotiations and concessions to get the bill passed. The funds expected to come to Texas were determined by the White House through the bill’s state allotment formula. Texas will also have the opportunity to apply for grants in a variety of categories in addition to these funds. It’s unclear how the money will be spent or what projects it will fund at this point, but the dollars will be set aside for a variety of new and maintenance projects, from highway expansions and broadband access to modernizing public transit throughout the state.
